What is China's economic situation expected to be like in 2023? What will be the core growth points? How can China's foreign trade continue to gain "new growth momentum" against the backdrop of increasing downside risks of the global economy? Let's take a look at what economists say.
Wen Bin, chief economist at China Minsheng Bank
China's GDP growth is expected to be around 5.5 percent in 2023, basically with a slower growth in the early months and faster growth in the later months.
Consumption growth will face a favorable situation next year as offline and clustering consumption are expected to recover, residents' incomes growth is expected to improve, and the advantages of China's large market will become more prominent.
From the investment perspective, infrastructure investment, manufacturing investment and real estate development investment are promising in the next year.
With the gradual optimization of epidemic prevention and control measures, the stability and competitiveness of China's supply chain and industrial chain will be further improved in 2023.
Deng Haiqing, chief economist at Avic Fund
Domestic demand will contribute more to China's economic recovery than overseas market demand next year. The optimization of epidemic prevention and control measures will hopefully facilitate consumption recovery.
Driven by policies, the real estate sector is expected to stabilize, with investment and sales sectors expected to rebound in the next year. The infrastructure investment growth will remain high.
In addition, tourism will probably rebound rapidly and auto consumption performance, which has been relatively bright, will outpace the overall consumption growth next year.
Ming Ming, chief economist at CITIC Securities
The epidemic will still impact the economic situation to some extent at the year end and early next year, but the current trend is upwards. The economy is expected to rebound prominently in the second quarter both on a monthly and yearly basis.
The growth in retail sales of consumer goods will hopefully return to 7-8 percent in 2023 and the added value of service sector to 5-6 percent.
In the foreign trade perspective, the growth of China's export to ASEAN is significantly higher than to other economies. The RCEP is working to create trade between China and ASEAN member states. Since the beginning of this year, as some energy-consuming industries in Europe have been affected by high energy costs, China's export of chemical products has shown certain substitution effect.
Chen Li, chief economist at Chuancai Securities
The future policy will continue to expand the vitality and creativity of enterprises, increase industrial support, expand residents' income and consolidate the consumption base and willingness of residents.
Manufacturing investment will help prop up the economy next year. Driven by the current policy of stabilizing growth, the infrastructure sector will enjoy further development, contributing to the steady and healthy growth of the Chinese economy.
Above article is from China Daily
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