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CHINA’S reserves of phosphorus, a key element for growing food, could be exhausted within the next 35 years if the country maintains its current production rate, a new study has found.
However, China could delay exhausting its phosphorus reserves by more than 20 years through improving agronomic use efficiency of the mineral to the average level of 80 percent in developed countries without impairing current crop yields, said the study, published this week in the US journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Zengwei Yuan of Nanjing University and colleagues modeled the phosphorous cycle in China since the 1600s and evaluated the mineral’s potential for eutrophication, which may lead to algal blooms, plant overcrowding and oxygen depletion.
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